US-CHINA AI TALKS FOCUS ON RISK, NOT COLLABORATION

Beran, a former US government official, argues that realistic outcomes from US-China AI discussions will be limited to risk management frameworks. Rather than pursuing joint research or technology sharing, both nations are expected to prioritize guardrails and threat-reporting channels. The distinction matters. Deep collaboration would require shared interests in AI development. Instead, Washington and Beijing view AI as a strategic asset tied to national security and economic dominance. This fundamental tension constrains what negotiators can achieve. Guardrails could include protocols for avoiding accidental escalation or mechanisms for reporting AI-related security concerns. Threat-reporting channels would allow officials to communicate when AI systems pose risks to either nation. These modest measures reflect the geopolitical reality: the US and China compete intensely on AI development while recognizing the need for communication channels to reduce miscalculation risks. Full collaboration remains unlikely given their divergent interests and values.