Kalshi and Polymarket have flagged over 400 suspicious trades in 2025 alone—more than double their entire 2024 investigation count. The surge comes as regulators intensify scrutiny of market manipulation on the platforms.
Prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket are grappling with a significant uptick in suspicious trading activity. Sources told Reuters that Kalshi has probed and flagged 400+ potentially fraudulent trades year-to-date, exceeding investigations conducted throughout all of 2025. Polymarket has experienced similar increases.
The timing is notable. House Oversight Committee Chair James Comer requested information from both platforms on their insider trading prevention measures, signaling congressional interest in market integrity.
Meanwhile, the platforms continue operating in India despite an April government advisory labeling prediction markets "illegal" and directing VPN providers to block access. Both Kalshi and Polymarket maintain user access in the region despite the warning.
The investigations suggest the platforms are detecting market manipulation, though the volume spike raises questions about whether detection efforts are improving or if fraudulent activity is genuinely accelerating as prediction markets gain mainstream adoption.
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